FW: Daily Report March 16

2000-03-29 00:02
In today's Report:
I. United States
1. US-DPRK Talks
2. US Forces in ROK
3. PRC View of Taiwan Elections
4. US-PRC Talks
5. US Views of Cross-Straits Tensions
6. PRC Satellite Development
7. Spratly Islands
II. Republic of Korea
1. ROK Aid Policy towards DPRK
2. ROK Aid to DPRK
3. DPRK-ROK Dialogue
4. DPRK Relations with US and Japan
5. ROK-Japan Military Talks
6. DPRK Parliament
7. DPRK-Malaysia Relations

I. United States

1. US-DPRK Talks

The Washington Times ("TALKS WITH N. KOREA END WITH NO ACCORD," New York,
3/16/00) reported that the US and the DPRK broke off talks on March 15
after failing to reach an agreement on an anticipated visit to the US by
a top DPRK official. Charles Kartman, US special envoy on DPRK talks,
stated, "we adjourned our talks in preparation for the high-level visit."
[Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense's
Early Bird news service for March 16, 2000.]

2. US Forces in ROK

PROTECTION," 3/16/00) reported that US Army General Thomas Schwartz,
commander-in-chief of the UN command in the ROK, told a congressional
hearing on March 15 that military forces in the ROK need theater missile
defense (TMD) for protection. However, Schwartz said, the military is
"heading in the right direction," in part because of the planned fielding
in the ROK later this year of the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)
system. Schwartz said a tiered family of TMD systems, including ones for
the Navy's fleet of Aegis ships, Lockheed Martin's Theater High Altitude
Area Defense (THAAD), and the international Medium Extended Air Defense
System would provide the needed coverage. The general added that the UN
command is also concerned by 700,000 DPRK troops within 100 miles of the
demilitarized zone and by the numerical advantage of the DPRK artillery -
about 12,000 total systems. Schwartz said that he "fully" supports Army
General Eric Shinseki's vision of a lighter, more deployable army. He
continued that early arrival of Army forces would mean a shorter conflict
and reduced casualties in the event of a Korean conflict. Schwartz also
said that enhanced command and control is his greatest equipment
priority. He stated, "we are most concerned about our command and
control systems. Near term, fiscal year 2001, we need an additional $35
million to cover these critical command and control requirements. My
existing Global Command and Control System (GCCS) operating costs alone
requires $6 million of that $35 million total. This is critical funding
for absolute 'go to war' readiness." Admiral Dennis Blair, commander-in-
chief of US Pacific Command, also testified before HASC on March 15, and
mentioned intelligence platform shortfalls for the Pacific theater.
Blair said that beyond the numbers planned, Pacific Command needs one
additional Boeing [BA] RC-135 electronic reconnaissance aircraft, one
Lockheed Martin EP-3E electronic reconnaissance aircraft, and one Navy
special collection platform to address the shortage. [Ed. note: This
article was included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news
service for March 16, 2000.]

3. PRC View of Taiwan Elections

TIMETABLE: SCHOLAR," Beijing, 3/16/00) reported that Xu Bodong, a
professor at Beijing's Union University, said on Thursday that the
timetable the PRC imposes on Taiwan to resolve the issue of reunification
depends on the results of the island's March 16 elections. Xu said, "the
timetable is in the hands of the mainland as well as in the hands of
Taiwan's new leader and Taiwanese voters. If a Taiwan candidate is
selected who supports Taiwan's independence then (the resolution of the
problem) will not be a matter of a few weeks, but a matter of a few
hours." Xu was among a panel of seven leading academics assembled to
back the government's policy on Taiwan. The academics said that the PRC
had decided to adopt a harder line on Taiwan only after Taiwanese
President Lee Teng-hui proposed that the PRC-Taiwan relations should be
considered as "state-to-state" ties in July 1999.

4. US-PRC Talks

ELECTIONS," Beijing, 3/16/00) reported that PRC foreign ministry
spokesman Sun Yuxi said Thursday that US ambassador to the UN Richard
Holbrooke will hold talks with PRC leaders next week. Sun said, "at the
invitation of the foreign ministry, the representative of the United
States to the UN will visit China in the near future when he will have
consultations with the Chinese side on UN affairs." Holbrooke will
arrive in Beijing on March 19 and hold two days of talks beginning March
20 with PRC Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan and PRC vice minister in charge
of international affairs, Wang Guangya. Analysts said that the US will
particularly be concerned over the PRC's reaction if Taiwan's pro-
independence candidate Chen Shui-bian win the elections. Foreign
diplomatic sources in Beijing said that a Chen victory could elicit an
unpredictable response from the PRC because it would mark the second time
PRC President Jiang Zemin's policy on Taiwan failed to win over Taiwanese

5. US Views of Cross-Straits Tensions

The Washington Post (Robert G. Kaiser and Steven Mufson, "ANALYSTS DIFFER
ON WHETHER CHINA CRISIS LOOMS," 3/16/00) reported that senior US
officials are bracing for the possibility that Taiwan's presidential
elections will bring a period of high tension with the PRC and compel the
US to make difficult choices. Morton Abramowitz, a former US Defense
Department official, said that the US has dealt with the PRC's
territorial claim to Taiwan by "exporting the problem to the future," but
certain factors have pushed the issue forward. He added, however, "this
is not like Serbs and Kosovars - none of the parties wants any part of
going to war." The article pointed out that rising nationalism in the
PRC and Taiwan, the widening gap between the PRC's communist political
system and Taiwan's democracy, PRC military modernization, and reciprocal
moves in the US Congress to defend the island are pushing the Taiwan
question into the present. Former defense secretary William J. Perry
said, "we're heading toward a collision course on this now." Paul
Wolfowitz, dean of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International
Studies, said, "democracy in Taiwan has changed the whole situation in
ways that are inadequately appreciated." More than three dozen US
officials and academic experts agreed that the next three to five years
will be a period of heightened tensions and potential crises. Chas. W.
Freeman Jr., a former assistant secretary of defense, said that while a
clash may not be imminent, "it's very likely the US and China are going
to have a war over this issue." Allen Whiting, a professor at the
University of Arizona, said that although he sees "a risk of war" if the
Taiwan issue is not resolved, serious trouble is at least three years
away. Thomas Christensen, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology who specializes in PRC foreign policy, said he fears that PRC
officials may convince themselves that a dramatic show of force would
compel Taiwan to accept the PRC's offer of reunification based on "one
country, two systems." Former secretary of state Henry Kissinger said he
worries that the PRC and the US will drift into hostility without a real
strategic reason for doing so. Kissinger said, "we are talking ourselves
into becoming each other's principal enemy." [Ed. note: This article was
included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for
March 16, 2000.]

Office of International Information Programs, US Department of State,
released a House International Relations Committee Press Release ("GILMAN
BLASTS CHINESE INTIMIDATION OF TAIWAN," Washington, 3/15/00) which said,
"US Rep. Benjamin A. Gilman (20th-NY), Chairman of the House
International Relations Committee, released the following statement today
concerning the Taiwanese election set for Saturday, March 18: On
Saturday, the people of Taiwan will be free to choose a new president.
Regrettably, officials of the People's Republic of China have made
statements designed to intimidate the Taiwanese people into voting for a
candidate acceptable to China. These threats are unacceptable. The
United States insists that the status of Taiwan be decided by peaceful
means with the consent of the people of Taiwan. It is my hope that the
people of Taiwan will ignore these contemptible threats and choose the
candidate that they feel will best represent them. Whoever is selected
to lead Taiwan will have a productive working relationship with the
American people, the American Congress and the American government.
Rather than engaging in threatening behavior, China should be
congratulating Taipei for the consolidation of its democracy -- the first
in 5,000 years of Chinese history -- and for laying the groundwork for
working with the new Taiwanese president for the betterment of the people
on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. It is also regrettable that the
Chinese have turned to blaming the United States for the problems in
their relationship with Taiwan. It seems to me that the refusal to
renounce the use of force, an unprecedented military buildup, and
threatening rhetoric against Taiwan would be more central to the
difficulties in the relationship. The United States has been key to the
peace and stability that we have seen across the Taiwan Strait for over
50 years."

6. PRC Satellite Development

POWER," 3/16/00) reported that a classified US Defense Intelligence
Agency (DIA) report sent to senior officials recently said that the PRC's
newest satellite, launched in January, is a military communications
satellite and a major component of the first integrated command, control,
communications, computer and intelligence system (C4I). The new system,
called Qu Dian, gives the PRC military new capabilities for coordinating
and supporting its growing forces. One official said, "this is a major
force multiplier." The PRC launched the satellite, reported by official
PRC media as a civilian ChinaSat-22 system, on January 26, 2000 from
Xichang in southwestern PRC. Defense officials familiar with the report
said the DIA identified the satellite as Feng Huo-1, the first of several
military communications satellites for the Qu Dian C4I system. The
report said an initial test of a subsystem known as the Tactical
Information System will be carried out by PRC defense technicians in the
next several weeks. The officials also said that the PRC military is
describing the new information system as similar to the US Defense
Department's Joint Tactical Information Distribution System or JTIDS - a
secure communications network used by US and allied aircraft, ships,
submarines and ground units to communicate and share intelligence in
wartime. The report said, "the Chinese reference to JTIDS suggests the
Tactical Information System will yield an integrated battlefield picture,
centralizing data from ground, air and naval platforms for wide
dissemination to subordinate units. Chinese work is progressing on both
the software and hardware to increase the integration and automation of
command and control systems." The intelligence report concluded that
when fully deployed in the next several years the Qu Dian system "will
allow theater commanders to communicate with and share data with all
forces under joint command with a high-speed and real-time view of the
battlefield which would allow them direct units under joint command more
effectively." According to the officials, the Central Intelligence
Agency (CIA) offered a dissenting view of the DIA's assessment, stating
in the report that "rigidity" of the PRC military command structure will
limit the effectiveness of the new military system. Larry Wortzel, a
former US Defense Department PRC specialist now with the Heritage
Foundation, said it is "dangerous" for US analysts to systematically play
down each improvement of PRC military capabilities. Wortzel said that
the new PRC system will "improve command and control and when the system
is in use and used in exercises it will help improve decision-making. It
took the PLA about four years to learn to use the computer-based war-
fighting simulation system it was given by the U.S. Army in 1998, and
they'll learn to use this system, too."

7. Spratly Islands

South China Morning Post (James East, "BEIJING WARNS AGAINST JOINT
MILITARY GAMES," Bangkok, 3/16/00) reported that in the first meeting of
involving the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the PRC,
both sides agreed to working together on a "code of conduct" governing
relations in the South China sea. However, PRC officials said that they
were determined to see an end to joint military operations around the
Spratly Islands. A senior adviser to the PRC Foreign Ministry delegation
said, "if some countries continue to beef up their military alliances or
joint exercise, all sides will continue to be suspicious of one another."
Delegates said it was still too early to talk about such specifics, which
would be left to a further meeting of foreign ministry officials in Kuala
Lumpur, Malaysia, next month. [Ed. note: This article was included in
the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for March 16,

II. Republic of Korea

1. ROK Aid Policy towards DPRK

The Korea Herald (Chon Shi-yong, "KIM HINTS AT NEW AID FOR N.K.," Seoul,
03/16/00) and The Korea Times ("'NK AID CANNOT BE MADE UNDER RECIPROCITY
PRINCIPLE," Seoul, 03/15/00) reported that ROK President Kim Dae-jung
indicated on Wednesday that the ROK would provide new food aid to the
DPRK with no conditions. "We must free our North Korean brethren from
the scourge of hunger," Kim said in a meeting with leading members of the
Korean Veterans Association at Chong Wa Dae. Kim's statement was seen by
analysts as an indication that the ROK may provide food and fertilizer to
the DPRK without attaching any preconditions. Kim's aides said at the
time that the President's statement could be interpreted as a sign that
the ROK government would use taxpayers' money to help the DPRK rebuild
its economy and resolve its food shortage problems. The ROK government
has so far refrained from using government funds in providing aid to the
DPRK, mostly out of fear of a conservative backlash. The opposition
Grand National Party has already taken issue with the President's Berlin
address, criticizing Kim for attempting to use public funds to help the
DPRK in spite of its aggressive posturing. [Ed. note: This article was
included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for
March 16, 2000.]

2. ROK Aid to DPRK

The Korea Times ("CIVIC GROUPS SHIP CLOTHES TO NK," Seoul, 03/15/00)
reported that a group of civic organizations on Tuesday shipped 300,000
yards of textiles worth 1 billion won and 50,000 pieces of clothing to
the DPRK on Wednesday, the Korean Sharing Movement (KSM) said. A KSM
spokesman said that a ship carrying the textiles and the clothes departed
Inchon with Woo Tae-ha, secretary general of the Korea Saemaul Movement
Center, and Nam Kyong-woo, head of the public relations department of the
vernacular weekly Naeil, on board. Woo and Nam have taken charge of the
delivery to the North Korean port of Nampo. A DPRK women's association
requested the goods last September when a delegation of KSM female
members visited Pyongyang. The National Livestock Cooperatives
Federation also said that a six-member delegation flew into Pyongyang via
Beijing on Tuesday to discuss cooperation in the livestock industry, and
get debriefed on the distribution of eggs that the federation and ROK
civic groups recently sent to the DPRK.

3. DPRK-ROK Dialogue

The Korea Herald (Kim Ji-ho, "N. KOREA CALLS ON SEOUL TO ACT ON TALKS,"
Seoul, 03/16/00), Chosun Ilbo (Kim In-ku, "NK CAUTIOUS ON BERLIN
DECLARATION," Seoul, 03/16/00), The Korea Times (Lee Soo-jeong, "NORTH
03/16/00) and Joongang Ilbo (Lee Young-jong, "NORTH KOREA'S FIRST
that in its first official response to President Kim Dae-jung's call for
the resumption of government-level dialogue last week, the DPRK said on
Wednesday that talks could be take place if "South Korea shows positive
changes and genuine action." Rodong Sinmun, the official newspaper of
the DPRK Workers' Party, said in an editorial, "We clearly desire to hold
heart-to-heart negotiations on the nation's fate, and will strive for
national reunification with South Korean authorities, if they drop their
traitorous confrontation policy and show a positive change in their
attitudes." The newspaper dismissed Kim's proposal itself as trite and
"nothing new," saying, "How can (the ROK) believe they will be able to
cooperate and reconcile with us by making these absurd remarks?" "One
act will be more important than 100 speeches," it said, stressing that
the ROK government should first meet preconditions if it wants dialogue
with the DPRK to take place. The ROK Unification Ministry, however,
regarded the Rodong Sinmun editorial as a fairly neutral response.
Assistant Unification Minister Kim Hyung-ki said that the government
would wait until the DPRK makes an authoritative response, noting that
Wednesday's remarks were made by the DPRK's media instead of Kim Yong-
sun, chairman of the Korean Asia-Pacific Peace Committee, who was the
official recipient of the ROK's message detailing the presidential
proposals. [Ed. note: The Korea Times article was included in the US
Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for March 16, 2000.]

4. DPRK Relations with US and Japan

IMPROVE," Seoul, 03/15/00) reported that the DPRK's relations with the US
and Japan appear to be improving as obstacles are removed one by one. On
March 13 the DPRK promised to resolve the issue of kidnapped Japanese
nationals. The two nations held Red Cross talks, separate from the main
meeting, and announced a joint agreement. The joint agreement includes
the following: Japanese spouses will be allowed to visit home in April or
May, their third such visit; a thorough investigation will be launched
into the disappeared Japanese nationals and if they are found,
appropriate measures will be taken; investigations will begin into
Koreans who disappeared before 1945. In addition, the US has not ruled
out the possibility of removing the DPRK from its list of terrorist-
sponsoring nations. Judging from US Secretary of State Madeleine
Albright's attitude on March 13, it appears that if the DPRK demonstrates
a sincere will, there will not be any problem for the US administration
to begin an agreement procedure. The DPRK is in urgent need for economic
support. The general analysis in diplomatic circles is that the DPRK
will push for a lift through a "technical agreement" with the US as it
did with Japan.

5. ROK-Japan Military Talks

3/16/00) reported that in a meeting between Cho Yung-kil, chairman of the
ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) met his Japanese counterpart Yuji
Fujinawa on March 15 and agreed to expand bilateral military exchanges
and cooperation between the ROK and Japan. Cho and Fujinawa also shared
the view that closer military ties between the ROK and Japan are
essential to maintaining regional security in Northeast Asia. Fujinawa
arrived in Seoul on March 14 for a four-day official visit at the
invitation of Cho. A JCS spokesman said that Cho outlined the ROK
government's engagement policy toward the DPRK and its efforts to step up
its military preparedness, while calling for Tokyo's continued support.
The spokesman said that Fujinawa voiced Japan's full support for the
ROK's "sunshine policy." The spokesman also said that, "at the meeting,
Fujinawa formally requested that Cho visit Japan to meet the members of
the Japanese Joint Staff Council, to which Cho reacted positively."

6. DPRK Parliament

AGREEMENTS," Seoul, 03/16/00) reported that an ROK Unification Ministry
official said on Wednesday that the DPRK will convene a meeting of its
Supreme People's Assembly April 4 to deliberate on the national budget.
The budget meeting is usually held in the spring to settle the past
year's accounts and confirm the budget for the new year. In this
meeting, the Assembly will likely discuss bills and ratify various
agreements signed with foreign countries.

7. DPRK-Malaysia Relations

Chosun Ilbo ("NORTH TO SIGN FIRST VISA FREE AGREEMENT," Seoul, 03/15/00)
and The Korea Times (Son Key-young, "NK, MALAYSIA TO SIGN VISA WAIVER
PACT," Kuala Lumpur, 03/15/00) reported that the DPRK and Malaysia will
sign a visa waiver agreement on March 23, timed with Foreign Minister
Paek Nam-sun's trip to Kuala Lumpur, a senior Malaysian government
official said on Monday. The DPRK had sought a three month visa-free
period, but the source said it has only been granted one month. Paik
will leave for China on March 18 and then visit Laos, Vietnam and


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