평화/화해

NEPSNet Daily Report - March 7, 2000

작성자
기사연
작성일
2000-03-17 00:00
조회
1043
NORTHEAST ASIA PEACE AND SECURITY NETWORK DAILY REPORT
For Tuesday, March 7, 2000, from Berkeley, California, USA

Latest Policy Forum Online:
"Make South Korea the Real Party to North Korea," by Indong Oh, Korea
2000
http://www.nautilus.org/fora/index.html

This week on the Nautilus homepage:
* Nautilus Authors Publish Three Chapters in Two UNU Books
* Teachers, Volunteers Complete Training for School Discovery Days Aboard
Pegasus

http://www.nautilus.org

In today's Report:
I. United States
1. US-DPRK Talks
2. DPRK-Japan Talks
3. ROK Policy toward DPRK
4. Korean War Massacre
5. Japanese Military Posture
6. PRC Threat to Taiwan
7. PRC Military Budget
II. Republic of Korea
1. DPRK-PRC Relations
2. PRC Policy toward Korean Peninsula
3. DPRK-US Talks
4. Japanese Aid to DPRK
5. ROK President's Vatican Visit
6. Italian Foreign Minister's DPRK Visit
7. DPRK-Italy Economic Cooperation
8. ROK Electronics to be Exhibited in DPRK
II. Russian Federation
1. Japanese Aid to DPRK
2. Death of DPRK Diplomat in Moscow
3. Transfer of US Korean War Prisoners to USSR
4. Alleged ROK Spying on RF
5. RF-PRC Relations
6. RF-PRC Space Cooperation
7. PRC-Taiwan Relations
8. PRC Membership in WTO
9. PRC Defense Budget
10. Norwegian Radar Station
11. RF Fighter Development

I. United States

1. US-DPRK Talks

Agence France Presse ("US, NORTH KOREA SET TO RESUME TALKS," New York,
3/7/00) reported that an anonymous US State Department official said that
US special envoy Charles Kartman and his counterpart, DPRK Vice Foreign
Minister Kim Gye-Gwan were to resume talks in New York on Tuesday. The
official said that Kim and Kartman were to meet informally first and
discuss a substantive agenda for a visit to Washington by a top DPRK
government representative. The official said, "today there will be some
informal contacts between the delegations, then on Wednesday there will
be a full delegation meeting." The DPRK mission to the UN in New York
acknowledged that the DPRK delegation had arrived, but declined to give
any further details. The US State Department official said that the
preparations for the future high-level visit will include the "crafting
of a substantive agenda " aimed at improving bilateral relations,
particularly on the issues of the DPRK missile and nuclear programs.
Hyung-kook Kim, Asian Studies director at American University in
Washington, stated, "the delegation from North Korea will be under
extreme pressure from the North Korean leadership to get as much as
possible. They are probably concerned with the timing of lifting
economic sanctions and deleting North Korea from the terrorist list as
soon as possible. The terrorist list is a key issue."

2. DPRK-Japan Talks

Agence France Presse ("JAPAN RESUMES FOOD AID BEFORE FULL DIPLOMATIC
TALKS WITH NORTH KOREA," Tokyo, 3/7/00) reported that Japan's Chief
Cabinet Secretary Mikio Aoki announced that Japan will send 100,000 tons
of rice to the DPRK in the hopes of improving Japan-DPRK relations. Aoki
said, "as for negotiations on diplomatic relations between Japan and
North Korea, full talks will resume in the first half of April." Aoki
said that after the preparatory talks last December, no further
preliminary talks would be needed. Instead, he said, the first round of
proper negotiations on setting up diplomatic ties would begin in
Pyongyang, the next in Japan, and then in the PRC or elsewhere. Aoki
stated, "it is our belief that the resumption of full meetings on
normalization of diplomatic relations will not only help correct abnormal
relations between Japan and North Korea and settle various problems
through dialogue but also contribute to the easing of tension on the
Korean peninsula and the security of our country."

3. ROK Policy toward DPRK

Far Eastern Economic Review (Frank Ching "EYE ON ASIA: KIM'S 'SUNSHINE'
POLICY AT WORK," 3/9/00, 163:10.) reported that ROK officials said that
the atmosphere on the Korean Peninsula has improved dramatically in
recent months. Cho Baek-sang, head of the ROK Foreign Ministry's inter-
Korean policy division, commented that "we feel less threatened than
before," but acknowledged that it will take "a long time to resolve
issues and narrow differences." One unnamed senior official credited ROK
President Kim Dae-jung's "sunshine" policy for helping improve DPRK ties.
The anonymous official said, "the sunshine policy means South Korea's
policy is to emphasize economic and trade cooperation" with the DPRK.
"We've given up the policy of absorption. We're not in a position to
feed 25 million North Koreans. This new policy ought to be less scary
for North Korea, which is concerned with political security." The
article said that while the DPRK has not responded directly to Kim's
overtures and continues to denounce him, the frequency of such
denunciations has dropped. The author wrote that Kim's efforts have
created an environment in which the DPRK's relations with other countries
have improved and the integration of the DPRK into the international
community, like economic cooperation between the two Koreas, will make
the DPRK a more open society with a less radical government.

4. Korean War Massacre

The Associated Press (Pauline Jelinek, "NO GUN RI COMPENSATION TALKS
SOUGHT," Washington, 3/7/00) reported that Korean survivors of the
alleged mass killing at No Gun-ri have hired Robert Swift, a Holocaust
compensation expert, to help press their demands for payment and an
apology from the US government. In a Washington news conference on March
6, survivors and their lawyers said that they believed that the US Army
probe was going too slowly and that they fear it may whitewash the
incident. Swift called on US President Bill Clinton to appoint someone
to begin negotiating with survivors and their lawyers to confirm the
facts of the case and negotiate compensation and an apology. US Army
spokesman Major Thomas Collins said on March 6 that investigators were
"moving as fast as we can but don't know if we can be done by June."
Full coverage of this story is located at http://saig-
web3.ignet.army.mil/nogunri/index.htm.

5. Japanese Military Posture

The Washington Times (Geoffrey Smith, "JAPAN EXPANDING DEFENSE ROLE,"
3/7/00, P.11) reported that US experts said that Japan appears ready to
assume a greater defense role to promote stability in East Asia. Joseph
Nye, dean of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, said
that trends over the past 10 years that show Japan to be increasing its
security role in the world are expected to continue and probably even
accelerate in the years ahead. Nye said at a conference on US-Japan
relations at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
last week that "Japan is doing drastically more in the world than it was
10 years ago." Defense Attache Major General Noboru Yamaguchi said in a
speech last week at Johns Hopkins University's School for Advanced
International Studies that "new types" of threats have appeared in the
region. Yamaguchi specifically cited the August 1998 DPRK launch of a
Taepodong missile and increased tensions over Taiwan. Yamaguchi said,
"Japanese sea lines go through and around Taiwan, so Japan also is going
to lose [if there is a war]. My personal feeling is that if something
happens over the Taiwan Strait, everyone is going to lose." William
Breer, who holds the Japan chair for CSIS, said that the US seems mixed
in its reaction to Japan's efforts to build a stronger military. Breer
said, "I think most thinking Americans would say that if [a stronger
Japanese military] happens through Japan's revisional process, then it's
OK." Breer said that efforts were under way to amend the constitution in
Japan "to bring the constitution in line with the current reality" but
not to "remilitarization a la the 1930s." [Ed. note: This article was
included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for
March 7, 2000.]

6. PRC Threat to Taiwan

The New York Times (Craig S. Smith, "CHINA'S THREAT TO TAIWAN: LIKELIHOOD
OF ATTACK DEEMED LOW," Shanghai, 3/6/00) reported that US analysts said
that the US government often overlooks the fact that the PRC's military
options for attacking Taiwan remain limited and impractical. Jonathan
Pollack, a PRC specialist at the Rand Corporation in California, said,
"there's no way at this moment that Beijing has the weapons in its
arsenal in sufficient numbers to undertake and sustain a major, full-
scale assault on Taiwan." Smith wrote that most Western military experts
say it will be years, if not decades, before the PRC can mount a credible
threat. He added that while the PRC does have alternatives to an
invasion, none of them seem likely. The option that experts in Taiwan
and the West take most seriously, because it is the one most available to
the PRC today, would be a short, Kosovo-like missile campaign intended to
devastate Taiwan's economy and supplemented with information warfare or
sabotage by the PRC's agents on the island. Eric McVadon, a retired
United States Navy rear admiral and a former defense attache in the PRC,
said, "if it didn't work, Beijing may not be greatly harmed by great loss
of forces, as may be the case with other options." McVadon said that
this is the possibility that most worries him, because such an act could
isolate the PRC diplomatically and halt most exports to the US and other
major markets. An anonymous Hong Kong-based economist said that if the
PRC chose a missile campaign and failed, it "would mean the end of the
regime. The risk to the party is far more than just more economic
stress." [Ed. note: This article was included as a Top Story in the US
Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for March 7, 2000.]

7. PRC Military Budget

The Associated Press (Marcos Calo Medina, "TAIWAN: CHINA HIDES WEAPON
SPENDING," Taipei, 3/7/00) reported that Taiwan's Defense spokesman Kung
Fan-ding said on Tuesday that the PRC is hiding much of its weapons
spending, which is probably three to five times the PRC's official
figure. Kung said, "regarding the numbers reported by the Chinese
military, a lot of the information is not announced and cannot be
confirmed." He said that the PRC has steadily improved its military by
buying costly advanced weaponry over the last ten years, which shows
their spending to be more than it actually reports. PRC Foreign Ministry
spokesman Zhu Bangzao defended the increase in defense spending on
Tuesday, saying it was geared toward meeting outside threats. Zhu said,
"the money required for defense and military modernization still falls
short of the real needs. If there is no serious threat to the security
and sovereignty of the country, defense expenditure will not increase
substantially." Zhu said that the spending for the 2.5 million-strong
army was the world's lowest per capita, and that much of the increase
covered salaries and services or made up revenue lost in divesting
commercial businesses. However, foreign analysts said that weapons
research and foreign purchases are not included in the PRC's public
figure. Analysts said that the PRC is spending more than US$1 billion
annually to buy foreign weapons, and that sum may triple over the next
five years.

II. Republic of Korea

1. DPRK-PRC Relations

The Korea Herald (Kim Ji-ho, "NORTH KOREA STEPS UP EFFORTS TO CEMENT TIES
WITH BEIJING," Seoul, 03/07/00), The Korea Times ("NK FOREIGN MINISTER
LIKELY TO VISIT CHINA THIS MONTH," Seoul, 03/06/00) and Chosun Ilbo (Kim
In-ku, "NK LEADER VISITS CHINESE EMBASSY," Seoul, 03/06/00) reported that
DPRK leader Kim Jong-il made a rare visit to the PRC embassy in
Pyongyang. The DPRK's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said that Kim
visited the PRC mission on March 5 "on the occasion of the new year, and
at the request of the Chinese ambassador to North Korea, Wan Yongxiang."
DPRK observers in the ROK noted that it was extremely unusual for the
DPRK leader, who has never traveled overseas and seldom meets foreigners
even in his own country, to visit a diplomatic mission. KCNA said, "a
Chinese official presented great leader Kim Jong-il with a bouquet and
the embassy staff welcomed him warmly. Kim expressed his appreciation
for the invitation and conversed with leading officials of the embassy in
a cordial and friendly manner." Officials in the ROK also placed
significance on the visit. One official said, "North Korea's top
officials have never personally visited foreign embassies in Pyongyang.
Actually, the same might be said for leaders of other countries." He
added that the DPRK may have wanted to demonstrate its exceptionally
strong relationship with the PRC, particularly prior to its crucial talks
with the US and Japan. The official added that DPRK Foreign Minister
Paek Nam-sun is also scheduled to visit the PRC on March 18,
reciprocating PRC counterpart Tang Jiaxuan's visit to Pyongyang last
October. ROK analysts said that despite the rapid improvements in
relations between them last year, the DPRK wants ties to be strengthened
at an even quicker pace, to guarantee crucial negotiating leverage in
upcoming talks with the US and Japan. The official added, "besides,
North Korea might have wanted to ease China's concerns about Pyongyang's
rapid improvement of relations with the West, and thus win guarantees of
continuous support and food aid from China."

2. PRC Policy toward Korean Peninsula

Chosun Ilbo (Jee Hae-bum, "CHINA SUPPORTS PEACE ON THE PENINSULA," Seoul,
03/07/00) reported that PRC Prime Minister Zhu Rongji announced on March
6, on the first day of the national legislature, that the PRC still
supports peace and stability on the Korean peninsula. Zhu said that last
year, the PRC had strengthened reciprocal relations with the ROK while
maintaining traditionally friendly ties with the DPRK, hinting that the
PRC's policy towards the ROK and the DPRK will remain the same this year.

3. DPRK-US Talks

The Korea Times (Son Key-young, "SETTING FOR US-NK TALKS, THOUGH UGLY,
LIKELY TO BRING POSITIVE OUTCOME," Seoul, 03/05/00) and The Korea Times
("US, NORTH KOREA TOP-LEVEL MEETING IN WASHINGTON ON TRACK," Seoul,
03/05/00) reported that the arrangements were made for the resumption of
US-DPRK talks in New York on March 6. The talks will center around two
main issues: a high-level DPRK official's visit to Washington and the
removal of the DPRK from the US list of terrorist states. ROK officials
had originally said that the talks between former defense secretary
William Perry and the DPRK's First Vice Foreign Minister Kang Sok-ju
would be broken up into various expert-level talks on nuclear issues,
missile nonproliferation, the improvement of US-DPRK ties and, if
requested, how to drop the DPRK from a US list of states sponsoring
terrorism. However, the DPRK did not cooperate with the strategies of
the ROK and the US by synchronizing an expert-level meeting on terrorism
issues with the preparatory talks.

4. Japanese Aid to DPRK

The Korea Times ("JAPAN TO RESUME FOOD AID TO NORTH KOREA: REPORTS,"
Seoul, 03/03/00) reported that Japan was to announce that it is sending
100,000 tons of rice to the DPRK as a prelude to full-fledged talks on
setting up diplomatic ties. Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Mikio Aoki
was to announce on March 7 the first food aid to the DPRK in three years.

5. ROK President's Vatican Visit

The Korea Herald (Chon Shi-yong, "POPE, KIM CALL ON INT'L COMMUNITY TO
HELP N.K.," Rome, 03/05/00) and Chosun Ilbo (Kim Min-bai, "PRESIDENT
SUGGESTS NK VISIT TO POPE," Seoul, 03/05/00) reported that ROK President
Kim Dae-jung suggested on March 4 that Pope John Paul II visit the DPRK.
Kim made the proposal to the Pope and an audience at the Vatican. The
occasion marked the first time an ROK head of state has visited the Roman
Catholic leader. Presidential spokesman Park Joon-young said that Kim
told the pontiff that a visit to the DPRK by the head of the Roman
Catholic Church would be a great contribution to peace not only on the
Korean Peninsula, but throughout Asia and the world. Park said that the
Pope responded that he did not have any plans to visit the DPRK at the
moment, and that it would be a "miracle" if he could travel to the DPRK.

The Korea Times (Lee Chang-sup, "POPE CALLS ON INT'L SOCIETY TO HELP
RELIEVE SUFFERING OF N.KOREANS," Rome, 03/06/00) reported that Pope John
Paul II during his public meeting with ROK President Kim Dae-jung called
upon the international community to show generosity in helping relieve
the suffering of DPRK citizens. The Pope said, "certainly, the path of
reconciliation will be long and difficult. Yet, despite the obstacles
you have not allowed yourself to become discouraged in your endeavors to
establish a climate of good and harmonious relations. I encourage the
efforts that President Kim has been endeavored to respond to their needs
at this difficult time and I take this opportunity to call upon the
international community to continue to show generosity in helping relieve
the suffering of the North Korean victims."

6. Italian Foreign Minister's DPRK Visit

The Korea Times ("DINI TO BRING ABOUT BREAKTHROUGH IN S-N RELATIONS,"
Rome, 03/05/00) reported that ROK President Kim Dae-jung expects Italian
Foreign Minister Lamberto Dini to bring about a major breakthrough in
inter-Korean relations. The expectation was expressed after Dini
unveiled his plan to visit the DPRK late this month. The foreign
minister outlined three principles he would convey to the DPRK during his
visit. Dini said that the DPRK must shed its isolationism and improve
its human rights condition before seeking to become a responsible member
of international society. Dini added, "the country must improve inter-
Korean relations before it expects western countries to open ties." Dini
told Kim and Foreign Affairs-Trade Minister Lee Joung-binn that Italy's
ties with the DPRK would serve to normalize inter-Korean relations on a
gradual basis.

7. DPRK-Italy Economic Cooperation

The Korea Times ("FIAT TO PROVIDE AUTO ASSEMBLY LICENSE TO N.KOREA,"
Rome, 03/05/00) reported that Italy's FIAT group has unveiled a plan to
team up with Reverend Moon Sun-myung's Unification Church group to launch
a FIAT assembly plant in the DPRK. FIAT honorary chairman Giovanni
Agnelli formally informed visiting ROK President Kim Dae-jung of the plan
on March 4 during a meeting at the Saint Regis Grand Hotel in Rome. The
Tongil Business Group will control 70 percent of a joint venture while
the DPRK has a 30 percent stake. FIAT will permit the joint venture firm
to assemble its models. According to Chong Wa Dae spokesman Park Joon-
young, the FIAT automobile parts will be brought from Vietnam for final
assembly in the DPRK. According to FIAT, less than 10,000 cars will be
assembled in the DPRK annually. It will be an opportunity for FIAT to
penetrate into the Asian market. Kim's spokesman said that after hearing
of the plan, Kim said that the entry of foreign firms to the DPRK will
serve to encourage it to go down the path of opening.

8. ROK Electronics to be Exhibited in DPRK

The Korea Times ("SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS APPLIANCE SHOW TO OPEN IN
PONGYANG," Seoul, 03/05/00) reported that Samsung Electronics Company
said on March 3 that it seeks to open an exhibition of digital
electronics appliances in the DPRK in early May to help them better
understand Samsung. The company also plans to set up an LCD (Liquid
Crystal Display) advertising board at the Pyongyang Gymnasium, and will
provide related equipment for 10 years. An official from Samsung said,
"taking North Koreans' living standard into consideration, we plan to
display electronic appliances like TVs, refrigerators, washing machines
and some digital communication equipment." The Unification Ministry said
that Samsung Electronics recently applied for official approval to send
equipment worth US$4 million, including two Pentium III computers, to set
up the LCD advertising board in the DPRK.

II. Russian Federation

1. Japanese Aid to DPRK

Izvestia ("TOKYO PLANS TO SHARE ITS RICE," Moscow, 4, 03/04/00) reported
that Japan planned to provide about 100,000 tons of rice via UN agencies
to the DPRK. After the DPRK missile test in 1998, Japan canceled its
assistance to the DPRK. However, Japanese diplomats are now trying to
link the food aid with a resumption of diplomatic contacts. So far,
there are no official Japan-DPRK diplomatic relations.

2. Death of DPRK Diplomat in Moscow

Nezavisimaia Gazeta (Oleg Nedumov, "A NORTH KOREAN DIPLOMAT DIED IN A
ROAD ACCIDENT," Moscow, 2, 02/26/00) reported that O Yon-cher, an
official of the Commercial Counselor Department of the DPRK Embassy in
Moscow, was killed in an accident on February 25 when his Mercedes car
smashed into a MAZ lorry. An unidentified woman in the car was also
killed.

3. Transfer of US Korean War Prisoners to USSR

Izvestia's Taras Lariokhin ("DRESSED IN RAGS AND HALF-FROZEN," Moscow, 9,
02/29/00) reported that the US Defense Department acquired a manuscript
written by "a Russian emigrant" containing 22 names of US servicemen
allegedly brought to a coal-mine prison camp in the Krasnoyarsk Region in
1951 during the Korean War. The author referred to a woman who, at that
time, managed to contact the US prisoners. However, only one name
coincided with the names contained in the official US Missing In Action
lists, namely Chung Ja Park Kim, "a Korean of Hawaiian origin." Norman
Kass, Executive Secretary, Joint RF-US POW/MIA Commission, said that the
data could hardly be confirmed by "an independent party," but the author
"could be trusted." Kass hoped to obtain access to Soviet GULAG archives
of the time, but admits that "the work will be a difficult one."

4. Alleged ROK Spying on RF

Subbotnik NG [a supplement to Nezavisimaia Gazeta] ("QUESTIONS OF
VALENTIN MOISEYEV'S WIFE," Moscow, 7, 02/26/00) published a letter by
N.M.Denisova, wife of Valentin Moiseyev, former Deputy Director of the RF
Foreign Ministry's First Asian Department, who was arrested in 1988 in
Moscow and charged with spying in favor of the ROK. Denisova claimed
that her husband's recruitment by ROK intelligence has still not been
proven. Denisova said that her husband's ROK diplomatic counterpart did
not sign any "admission" protocols. She also said that nothing has shown
that her husband transferred RF secret documents to ROK diplomats, or
that he received an award for the work. Denisova wrote, "the South
Korean diplomat came to Moiseyev's home, drank some tea and found himself
a persona non grata. It was necessary to remove none other but Moiseyev?
Why? Because he never hid his North Korean sympathies? Because he
thought our North Korean policy erroneous?"

5. RF-PRC Relations

Segodnya (Aleksandr Chudodeyev, "EACH GREAT POWER HAS GOT ITS OWN
CHECHNYA," Moscow, 2, 03/02/00) reported that Acting RF President
Vladimir Putin on March 1 met PRC Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan in the
Kremlin. Putin said that RF-PRC partner-like relations were of "both
global nature and that of regional and bilateral cooperation." However,
the message by PRC Chairman Jiang Zemin to Putin contained an appeal "to
fill both countries' aspiration for strategic interaction with concrete
content," which meant that the PRC wanted RF support on the Taiwan issue.

Nezavisimaia Gazeta (Natalia Airapetova, "SHOULD RUSSIA BE WARY OF
CHINA," Moscow, 8, 03/03/00) published an interview with Vilya Gelgras,
Professor of the Asia-Africa Institute of the Moscow State University and
a leading expert on the PRC. Gelgras said that RF and PRC leaders use
such terms as "strategic partnership," which is allegedly the basis of
RF-PRC relations, differently. However, the PRC has agreed to include
the term in its agreements with the US, France, Great Britain and Japan
as well. Gelgras said that it was a dangerous illusion to believe that
the PRC will support the RF on radical issues just because the term is
contained in the bilateral documents. Meanwhile, the PRC has managed to
get concessions from the RF concerning some territories and islands along
the RF-PRC border. The author criticized Evgeny Primakov's idea of a
Moscow-Beijing-Delhi "alliance" and stressed that the PRC Constitution
bans any alliances. He believed that the economic prospects for the PRC
and Japan in the 21st century are exaggerated, and that the PRC's
"demographic expansion" to the RF Far East is "a myth."

6. RF-PRC Space Cooperation

Izvestia (Sergey Leskov, "A CHINATOWN IN THE ORBIT," Moscow, 1, 03/06/00)
reported that RF Vice-Premier Ilya Klebanov's 3-day visit to the PRC
resulted in a decision that the RF would help the PRC to create an
orbital space station. The PRC would provide the money while RF space
designers would provide the work. For the PRC, it would be much cheaper
"to import" the RF-made "Mir" space station because it would only cost
US$500 million for 3-4 years, while building an entirely new station
would cost several billion dollars. The PRC also lacks reliable
launching means. Aleksandr Serebrov, a Pilot Cosmonaut for the former
Soviet Union, said, "we should be ready for the Chinese flag to be
hoisted on the 'Mir' station. They would surely demand that.
Principally for us it would be easier to get an agreement with the
Chinese than with the Americans.... Maybe it would be possible to create
a more reasonable arrangement with the Chinese. Their astronauts are
very attentive, they are born A-graders." According to PRC customs, PRC-
RF trade increased 14.9 percent and reached US$4.2 billion last year
officially, with unofficial estimates at US$5.7 billion.

7. PRC-Taiwan Relations

Segodnya ("TAIWAN WILL NOT HOLD REUNIFICATION TALKS WITH THE P.R.C,"
Moscow, 4, 02/23/00) reported that Taiwan rejected the PRC's proposal to
hold talks on reunification and repeated that the states on both sides of
the Straits of Taiwan were governed by sovereign governments.

Izvestia ("TAIWAN IS NOT AFRAID OF MAINLAND CHINA'S THREATS," Moscow, 4,
02/23/00) reported that Henry Cheng, Taiwan Foreign Ministry Spokesman,
said that the PRC should stop intimidating Taiwan, because "we are a
sovereign state and have full right to establish diplomatic relations
with any country and to participate in any international associations."

Nezavisimaia Gazeta ("BEIJING-WASHINGTON CONFRONTATION ON THE RISE,"
Moscow, 6, 02/25/00) reported that US State Department Spokesman James
Rubin said that the US could not ignore the new threats against Taiwan
made by the PRC. The PRC Ambassador to Washington was invited to the US
State Department for explanations, while the US Defense Department made
it clear that it could send its ship to the area.

8. PRC Membership in WTO

Segodnya ("BEIJING AND E.U. CANCELLED TALKS ON CHINA'S ENTRY TO W.T.O.,"
Moscow, 5, 02/25/00) reported that European Union-PRC talks on PRC
membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) were canceled on
February 24. An agreement was expected to be signed soon, but the
cancellation possibly has to do with PRC-US controversy over the recent
PRC increased threats against Taiwan.

9. PRC Defense Budget

Sovetskaya Rossia ("CHINA INCREASES EXPENDITURE ON DEFENSE NEEDS,"
Moscow, 3, 03/07/00) reported that the PRC Finance Minister told the All-
China Assembly of People's Representatives in Beijing that the PRC this
year planned to increase its defense expenditure by 12.7 percent to US$16
billion.

10. Norwegian Radar Station

Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye (Anatoly Dyakov and Teodor Postol,
"ANTI-MISSILE FRONT IN THE NORTH OF NORWAY," Moscow, 6, 02/25-03/02/00,
#7(180)) published an article on US arrangements for national anti-
missile defense. The authors claim that the recent US steps to upgrade
the early-warning radar stations in Great Britain, Thule, Grand Forks and
Clea are exactly suited to modernize the technical capabilities necessary
for an anti-missile system aimed against the RF and the PRC, rather than
the DPRK, Iraq or Iran. The author also said the US radar station in
Norway called HAVE STARE which is allegedly intended to monitor space
debris was in fact suited to monitor RF missile tests.

11. RF Fighter Development

Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye ("THE FIRST FLIGHT OF '1.44'," Moscow,
1, 03/03-16/00, #8(181)) reported that an experimental MiG fighter known
as item 1.44 made its first flight on March 29. It is a so-called fifth-
generation fighter.

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Produced by the Nautilus Institute in partnership with:

The International Policy Studies Institute
Seoul, Republic of Korea
http://www.IPSI.org/

The Center for Global Communications, Tokyo Japan
http://aska.glocom.ac.jp/default.html

Center for American Studies
Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
http://www.fudan.edu.cn/English/nsindex.html

Asia Institute
Monash University, Clayton, Australia
http://www.arts.monash.edu.au/mai/

Timothy L. Savage: napsnet@nautilus.org
Berkeley, California, United States

Gee Gee Wong: napsnet@nautilus.org
Berkeley, California, United States

Kim Hee-sun: khs688@hotmail.com
Seoul, Republic of Korea

Hiroyasu Akutsu: akutsu@glocomnet.or.jp
Tokyo, Japan

Peter Razvin: icipu@glas.apc.org
Moscow, Russian Federation

Chunsi Wu: cswu@fudan.ac.cn
Shanghai, People's Republic of China

Dingli Shen: dlshen@fudan.ac.cn
Shanghai, People's Republic of China

Leanne Paton: anjlcake@webtime.com.au
Clayton, Australia