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북한 문제에 관련한 nautilus daily report 2월 8일

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2000-03-03 23:57
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NORTHEAST ASIA PEACE AND SECURITY NETWORK DAILY REPORT
For Tuesday, February 8, 2000, from Berkeley, California, USA

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In today's Report:
I. United States
1. Russia-DPRK Talks
2. ROK-US Missile Talks
3. Taiwan Missile Defense
4. US Missile Defense
5. Missile Defense Test
6. US-Russian Nuclear Cooperation
II. Republic of Korea
1. ROK-PRC Talks on DPRK Defectors
2. Alleged DPRK Nuclear Facility
3. Celebration of DPRK Leader's Birthday
4. DPRK Diplomatic Relations
5. ROK on Perry Proposal
III. People's Republic of China
1. PRC Response to TSEA
2. Reactions to TSEA
3. PRC Policy on Taiwan
4. PRC Opposes Lee Teng-hui Visiting Japan

I. United States

1. Russia-DPRK Talks

Agence France Presse ("RUSSIAN VISIT TO NKOREA TO OPEN NEW ERA OF
RELATIONS," Moscow, 2/8/00) reported that Russian Foreign Minister Igor
Ivanov will arrive in the DPRK on February 9 for a two-day visit during
which he will meet with DPRK leaders, including Kim Yong-Nam, chairman of
the Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly. The ITAR-TASS news
agency said on Tuesday that Ivanov will carry a message from acting
Russian President Vladimir Putin to DPRK leader Kim Jong-il. Georgii
Toloraya, deputy head of the foreign ministry's Asian department, stated,
"the visit starting on Wednesday will be a symbolic commitment and a
significant start of a new stage of relations based on the recognition of
new realities." The report said that Ivanov hopes his visit will restore
cooperation between Russia and the DPRK with the signing of a new
friendship treaty, which will replace a 1961 defense pact. The ITAR-TASS
said that the treaty is aimed at strengthening peace and stability in
Asia, regulating relations between the two countries for the next quarter
century, and supporting the union of the Korean peninsula with the
agreement of the ROK and the DPRK. The news agency also said the two
sides will discuss the political situation on the Korean peninsula and
Russia's fears about the spread of nuclear weapons. Toloraya said that
Ivanov will seek the DPRK's support for a global system of control over
missiles and weapons technology. Toloraya stated, "we will propose that
North Korea participate in this project. Both countries have come out
against the creation of an anti-missile defense system of military
operations in the Asian theater." Russian Deputy Foreign Minister
Grigory Karasin said on February 7 that the DPRK-Russia treaty "is not
aimed against a third country."

2. ROK-US Missile Talks

Agence France Presse ("NORTH KOREA LAMBASTS SOUTH KOREA'S MISSILE
DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM," Seoul, 2/8/00) reported that the DPRK on Tuesday
criticized the ROK's missile program just hours ahead of US-ROK missile
talks. The official DPRK news agency said that the ROK was "imploring
the US to allow the increase of missile range. This clearly shows how
recklessly they are running amok in their preparations for a war of
aggression against the north from the beginning of the year." ROK
Foreign Minister Lee Joung-Binn told the ROK daily Munhwa that "the
missile talks will be going in the direction of satisfying our security
needs and lifting all restrictions on developing space programs in the
private sector. I do not expect an agreement this time. But there will
be a compromise in the near future." However, Lee said that the ROK
would try to honor a US-led campaign aimed at curbing global missile
proliferation.

3. Taiwan Missile Defense

The Washington Times (Bill Gertz, "TAIWAN ASKS FOR RADAR, SHIPS," 2/8/00,
P.3) reported that US Representative Dana Rohrabacher, Republican-
California, who met in January with senior Taiwanese officials, including
President Lee Teng-hui and Defense Minister Tang Fei, said that Taiwan
urgently needed long-range radar and Aegis ships to counter the PRC's
growing force of short-range missiles. Rohrabacher said, "the greatest
danger to peace and to the people of Taiwan is the possibility of a
surprise attack from the mainland. Taiwan desperately needs radar to
detect a missile launch or an aircraft attack, and they're willing to pay
for it, so we should sell it to them." Rohrabacher said, "the ultimate
items that will permit deterrence to work in the Taiwan Strait are early-
warning radar and sophisticated antimissile and anti-aircraft technology.
By their very nature, we're talking defense systems that are permitted by
the Taiwan Relations Act."

4. US Missile Defense

The San Francisco Examiner (Eric Rosenberg, "CLINTON ADDS TO FUNDING FOR
MISSILE SYSTEM," Washington, 2/7/00) reported that the Clinton
administration's US$291 billion defense budget which will be announced on
February 14 will boost funds for a National Missile Defense (NMD) system
that will link radars, space sensors and rockets to protect the US from a
missile attack. A senior defense official said that the additional money
will be used to increase the number of rocket interceptors from 20 to
100. The additional funds also allow the US Defense Department to
upgrade the early warning facilities and build a new radar complex in
Alaska. [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of
Defense's Early Bird news service for February 8, 2000.]

5. Missile Defense Test

Washington Post (Bradley Graham, "LEAK FOILED MISSILE TEST," Washington,
2/8/00, P.1) reported that investigators have concluded that a simple
plumbing leak caused last month failed test of an experimental missile
interceptor. US Defense Department officials said the conclusion
suggested that no fundamental scientific flaw caused the interceptor to
miss its target, but the failure of the test has forced a delay of at
least several weeks. Officials said that aside from the plumbing leak,
almost everything else went right during the January test, including the
first-time use of satellites and ground-based tracking radar to guide the
interceptor. Investigators said that the leak occurred in a small metal
tube that conveys nitrogen gas to refrigerate a pair of infrared sensor
panels in the interceptor. The sensors serve as the interceptor's eyes,
spotting enemy warheads by detecting heat signatures and other features.
Investigators said that with the sensors not working, the interceptor or
"kill vehicle" ended up essentially blind in the final seconds of its
flight and shot past its target. Officials said that the next test is
tentatively scheduled for the second half of May. White House officials
said on February 7 that there has been no change in US President
Clinton's self-imposed deadline for a decision in mid-summer on whether
to proceed from development to deployment. [Ed. note: This article was
included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for
February 8, 2000.]

6. US-Russian Nuclear Cooperation

The Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of
State released a statement by US President Bill Clinton ("ADVANCING
UNITED STATES LEADERSHIP IN THE WORLD," Washington, 2/7/00) announcing
his plan to continue the Expanded Threat Reduction Initiative (ETRI),
which was launched seven years ago to contain the spread of weapons of
mass destruction (WMD) from the former Soviet Union and promote
stability. Clinton said that ETRI will "continue to require substantial
external support to sustain the necessary infrastructure to protect
against the diversion of WMD nuclear, biological, and chemical -- and
related technology." The budget will be US$974 million, a US$85 million
increase from the 2000 level of US$889 million. Clinton said, "the ETRI
programs address nuclear security for existing weapons and delivery
systems, protection and disposition of fissile materials, destruction of
chemical weapons, military relocation and regional stabilization. The
proposed DOE request for ETRI includes a $100 million initiative in
Russia to expand protection of fissile material; accelerate closure of
nuclear weapons production facilities; and, provide an alternative to
continued plutonium reprocessing in Russia."

II. Republic of Korea

1. ROK-PRC Talks on DPRK Defectors

The Korea Herald (Kim Ji-ho, "NEW SEOUL-BEIJING CHANNEL SEEN TO EXERT
LITTLE INFLUENCE ON N.K. DEFECTOR ISSUE," Seoul, 02/08/00) reported that
the ROK and the PRC agreed last week to establish a high-level diplomatic
channel aimed at swiftly ironing out the two nation's differences in
certain areas. However, ROK officials and analysts appear to be
skeptical that the channel can deal adequately with sensitive issues like
the repatriation of DPRK defectors. ROK Deputy Foreign Minister Jang
Jai-ryong insisted upon his return that the bilateral dialogue channel
would not be a "hotline" designed to resolve the growing problem of DPRK
refugees seeking refuge in the PRC. Foreign Ministry officials said that
although the PRC regards the DPRK defectors as a significant diplomatic
issue, it is very difficult to secure a pledge from the PRC to treat them
consistently in accordance with the ROK's wishes.

2. Alleged DPRK Nuclear Facility

The Korea Herald ("N.K. MAINTAINS UNDERGROUND NUCLEAR WEAPONS FACILITY,
SCHOLAR CLAIMS," Seoul, 02/08/00) reported that Han Ho-sok, president of
the Center for Korean Affairs, claimed in a report released on the
center's website (http://www.onekorea.org) on February 6 that the DPRK
has built an underground nuclear facility for military purposes which US
spy satellites and reconnaissance planes cannot easily detect. Han said
that the DPRK's Yongbyon facility was a nuclear complex constructed only
for civilian purposes. Han said that since the mid-1980s, when the DPRK
signed an agreement on nuclear energy development with the former Soviet
Union and several other East European countries, the DPRK has increased
its efforts to develop nuclear energy technology. He said that the DPRK
also dispatched over 200 scientists to the former Soviet Union between
1956 and 1991 to be trained at a nuclear energy institute.

3. Celebration of DPRK Leader's Birthday

Joongang Ilbo (Lee Young-jong, "PYONGYANG BUSY PREPARING FOR KIM JONG-
IL'S 58TH BIRTHDAY PARTY," Seoul, 02/07/00) reported that the DPRK is
preparing events to commemorate its leader, Kim Jong-il's, 58th birthday
on February 16. A source within the ROK government said that the Rodong
Shinmun, or the Worker's Newspaper, and broadcasting companies in the
DPRK have expanded the airing of reports praising Kim as his birthday
nears. An official at the ROK Unification Ministry said on February 7
that, "Mr. Kim plans to announce key promotions for the North's military
on his birthday." The official also said that the DPRK trading agencies
in the PRC are very busy procuring birthday presents to be given to the
leader as an act of devotion. The official said that special goods,
including edible oil and sugar, will be distributed to DPRK residents.

4. DPRK Diplomatic Relations

Chosun Ilbo (Lee Hyuk-jae, "COUNTRIES WILLING TO NORMALIZE TIES WITH NK,"
Seoul, 02/07/00) reported that a high-ranking Australian official will
visit the DPRK for the first time in 15 years. France, Taiwan, Israel
and the Philippines have also shown their willingness to improve
relations with the DPRK. US Assistant Secretary of State Stanley Roth
said that many countries wish to build better relations with the DPRK.
During the national defense forum of the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) held in Munich, Germany, on February 6, Japan and the
PRC strongly suggested that NATO member countries get in contact with the
DPRK. The two countries also advised NATO to send the DPRK government a
positive sign (of good will). Japan emphasized that the member countries
should bring the DPRK into the international community so that stability
in East Asia can be assured.

5. ROK on Perry Proposal

The Korea Times (Son Key-young, "SEOUL FIRMLY BACKS 'PERRY PROCESS',"
Seoul, 02/07/00) reported that new ROK Foreign Affairs-Trade Minister Lee
Joung-binn on February 6 reaffirmed the ROK's "full and unswerving"
support for the "Perry process." Lee said, "we believe the so-called
Perry report or process is based on our engagement policy toward North
Korea. Therefore, we fully and firmly support the Perry process." Lee
stressed that the ROK is in favor of increased contact between the DPRK
and the US because a higher-level dialogue is part of the Perry process.
Lee also said that improved US-DPRK relations are conducive to inter-
Korean rapprochement. He continued, "before the high-level talks between
North Korea and the United States, I plan to meet Secretary of State
Madeleine Albright to reaffirm our strong coordination in the
policymaking process." Lee also said the visit to the US by a senior
DPRK official will serve as momentum to jump-start the Perry process,
whose implementation has been delayed partly because of the DPRK's
indecisiveness on the idea of dramatically improving ties with the US.

III. People's Republic of China

1. PRC Response to TSEA

China Daily (Hu Qihua, "CHINA CONDEMNS US BILL ON TAIWAN," 2/3/00, P1)
reported that the PRC expressed strong opposition on February 2 to the US
House of Representatives' passage of the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act
(TSEA). PRC Vice-Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi summoned US ambassador to
the PRC Joseph Prueher on February 2 to lodge a serious complaint. Yang
said that the passage of the TSEA violates the three Sino-US joint
communiques and other commitments by the US and hurts PRC-US relations.
The report said that the Taiwan issue is of concern to all Chinese people
and always the stickiest point in Sino-US relations. Yang also said that
the PRC government and people will not endure any attempt to block
China's efforts to unify the country. He added that the government and
the people have the determination, confidence and ability to unify the
entire country. Yang said that the PRC had urged the US government to
prevent Congress from passing the act and if the act became law, it would
pose a "serious threat" to the "relationship across the Taiwan Straits,
the peace and stability in Asia-Pacific region and Sino-US ties."

2. Reactions to TSEA

People's Daily (Liu Jiang, "CLINTON CRITICIZES BILL ON TAIWAN SECURITY,"
Washington, 2/6/00, P1) reported that US President Bill Clinton on
February 4 reiterated his opposition to the Taiwan Security Enhancement
Act (TSEA), saying that it would have a "boomerang effect" and diminish
the island's security. Clinton said in an interview on US television,
"they (the Chinese) don't like it, but I don't support the bill either.
I don't think it's in Taiwan's best interest. Passing a big, new,
sweeping bill like this is not well-advised and will complicate our long-
term task and may well have the boomerang effect of putting Taiwan under
greater pressure." Clinton also re-affirmed the US adherence to a "one-
China" policy.

People's Liberation Army Daily ("RUSSIA OPPOSES US PRO-TAIWAN BILL,"
Moscow, 2/7/00, P4) reported that the Russian Foreign Ministry published
a statement on February 4 saying that Russia opposed the Taiwan Security
Enhancement Act (TSEA) passed by the US House of Representatives. The
statement said that the passage of the TSEA did not contribute to better
relations between the two sides of the Taiwan straits and to the overall
situation in the Asia-Pacific region. The statement also said that
Russia recognized Taiwan as an inalienable part of the PRC, and that the
PRC government was the sole legitimate government of that country.

3. PRC Policy on Taiwan

People's Daily ("PREMIER'S SPRING FESTIVAL MESSAGE," 2/5/00, P1) reported
that PRC Premier Zhu Rongji reiterated the determination of the PRC
government to resolve the Taiwan issue as soon as possible following the
successful return of Hong Kong and Macao to the PRC. Zhu said at the
Spring Festival gathering held in the Great Hall of the People on
February 4, "at this occasion of reunion for millions of families, we
miss our Taiwan compatriots more than ever. After Hong Kong and Macao
returned to the motherland, the sacred mission to resolve the Taiwan
issue and completely reunite the motherland has become even more
prominent for all the Chinese people. We will continue to do well all
the work to develop the cross-strait relations and promote the peaceful
reunification of the motherland in line with the principles of 'one
country, two systems' and the eight-point proposition put forward by
President Jiang Zemin on the Taiwan issue." Zhu also reiterated that the
PRC government will continue to support the governments of Hong Kong
Special Administrative Region and the Macao Special Administrative Region
in governance according to law and maintain long-term prosperity and
stability of the two regions.

China Daily ("CHINA'S FOREIGN, SECURITY POLICY DETAILED," Berlin, 2/8/00,
P1) reported that PRC Vice-Foreign Minister Wang Guangya expounded on the
PRC's Foreign Policy at the 36th Munich Security Conference on February
6. Wang stressed that Taiwan is an inalienable part of the Chinese
territory. He said the PRC government would settle the issue strictly in
accordance with the basic principle of "peaceful reunification and one
country, two systems." Wang also said the PRC firmly opposes any "Taiwan
independence," "two Chinas" or "one China, one Taiwan" policy. He
continued to say that the Taiwan question is strictly the PRC's internal
affair and if any country or military alliance attempted to include the
Taiwan Straits into their security cooperation program, directly or
indirectly, would be considered an encroachment on and interference in
the PRC's sovereignty. Wang also said that the PRC government is firmly
opposed to arms sales to Taiwan by any country and such sales would not
only violate the basic principles of international law, but also directly
threaten the PRC's security and regional peace and stability.

4. PRC Opposes Lee Teng-hui Visiting Japan

China Daily (Meng Yan, "NATION REITERATES ITS POSITIONS," 2/4/00, P1)
reported that PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao said on February
3 that if reports are accurate that Taiwan leader Lee Teng-hui will be
travelling to Japan, the visit will have a serious political impact on
Sino-Japanese relations. Zhu stressed that the PRC opposed the visit no
matter what purpose Lee might have for making it.

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